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May 19 2019

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Indiana vs. Iowa odds, line: College basketball picks, best predictions from model on 16-8 roll

SportsLine’s advanced computer model simulated Indiana vs. Iowa 10,000 times

  • by CBS Sports Staff
  • Feb 22, 2019 at 8:13 pm ET • 2 min read

Victories have eluded the Indiana Hoosiers more often than not, but many of those defeats came in heartbreaking fashion. They’ll look to reverse that trend on Friday night when they head to Iowa City to face the Hawkeyes in a Big Ten matchup. Tipoff is at 9:15 p.m. ET. Indiana (13-13) is just 4-11 in the Big Ten, although the average margin against is just 6.4 points. Meanwhile, Iowa (20-6, 9-6) is one of six teams in a battle for a top-four regular-season finish, and those teams get a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. The latest Indiana vs. Iowa odds have the Hawkeyes favored by eight points, up from an open of 6.5, while the over-under, or total points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 144.5. Before locking in any Iowa vs. Indiana picks of your own, you’ll want to read what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It also entered Week 16 of the 2018-19 college basketball season on a blistering 16-8 run on top-rated college basketball side picks either against the spread or on the money line. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Indiana vs. Iowa. We can tell you it’s leaning over, but it has also locked in a confident against the spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

The model knows Iowa has a frontcourt duo that teams have found very difficult to contain. The 6-9 junior Tyler Cook averages 15.9 points and 8.0 rebounds, while 6-11 sophomore Luka Garza averages 13.1 and 4.7. Iowa will be looking for its first regular-season sweep of the Hoosiers since 2010-11. The Hawkeyes are 13-3 on the season at home.

Iowa has a point differential of 7.8 this season, more than double Indiana’s 3.6. The Hawkeyes also covered the first meeting between these clubs this season, winning by five as a 2.5-point underdog. Moreover, Indiana is on a 2-10 run against the spread and 1-3 against the number when it’s more than a 6.5-point underdog.

But just because the Hawkeyes have plenty of talent doesn’t mean they’ll cover the Indiana vs. Iowa spread on Friday.

Indiana has lost 11 of 12, and its 4-11 Big Ten mark is nowhere close to meeting preseason expectations, especially after going 12-2 in non-conference play. More than half of those losses, however, have been by single-digits and three were by one possession. Iowa’s last four games have been decided by five points or fewer.

The Hoosiers still possess one of the most dominant Big Ten front court players, Juwan Morgan, who is averaging 15.1 points and 8.2 rebounds. Freshman phenom and leading scorer Romeo Langford (17.1 ppg) has been inconsistent, but when he leads his team in scoring, the Hoosiers are 4-6 in Big Ten games, compared to 0-5 when he doesn’t.

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